Animal Spirits: Will Higher Rates Kill the Stock Market

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The S&P 500 $SPY has been holding within 1% of a new high.

More than 70% of its stocks are at least 10% below their own highs.

Here's every other time it happened in the past 30 years. pic.twitter.com/oj3mEwoSyY

— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) September 28, 2026

New 52-week lows are expanding on the S&P 500.

The key distinction, however, is where that deterioration is happening: 21 of the 28 net new lows came from Utilities, Staples, and Real Estate.

Right now, much of the damage remains concentrated in defensive areas, while… pic.twitter.com/qBW6J0oU3D

— Duality Research (@DualityResearch) September 28, 2026

7% mortgage rates
4% unemployment
5% bond yields
4% cash yields
$100 oil
$5 gas prices
3.4% inflation
Basically all-time highs in the stock market
Basically all-time lows in consumer sentiment

Something for everyone right now

Strange times

— Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) September 23, 2026

Enough dough for a rainy day: surging equity wealth pushed household assets above 10x of liabilities in 2Q of 2026. This wealth effect is a tailwind for consumer spending. Even a hiccup in stocks wouldn't derail things because balance sheets (the asset/liability ratio) have… pic.twitter.com/njGEwcREeB

— Blake Millard, CFA (@BlakeMillardCFA) September 24, 2026

The rent is no longer too damn high?

"As of August 2026, the national median rent sits at $1,390, almost exactly where it would have been if rent growth since 2020 had remained on the slow and steady trajectory it had been on pre-pandemic ($1,395)."

2.7% annualized since 2017. pic.twitter.com/cB2glENheB

— John Arnold (@johnarnold) September 28, 2026

A list of surprising and mind-boggling stats from this conversation:

– $1B+ a year in transaction volume (still invite only)

– Growing 10%+ A DAY and has spent zero dollars on marketing

– 40% of users shared a personal credit card with Instinct within 3 weeks

– Compute demand… https://t.co/hItOBkivuS

— Patrick OShaughnessy (@patrick_oshag) September 28, 2026

We just submitted a regulatory filing to introduce margin on a subset of long-dated prediction markets. This will not apply to sports, culture, and a few other categories.

We are very excited to be taking what we believe is our most important step toward institutional adoption… pic.twitter.com/ZxlpJOmPba

— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) September 22, 2026

For millions of young people across America, homeownership seems further out of reach than ever before.

Here's my proposal: we can help restore the dream of homeownership with a 5 to 1 federal match for first-time homebuyers saving for a downpayment.https://t.co/ehBHNICWNx

— Senator Jeff Merkley (@SenJeffMerkley) September 24, 2026

Apollo and Morgan Stanley just did it again.

Third quarter in a row.

Investors asked to pull far more than the funds would pay.

Both capped redemptions at 5%. pic.twitter.com/35dIqEfwx3

— kristen shaughnessy (@kshaughnessy2) September 23, 2026

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