Animal Spirits: Addicted to Trading

Posted June 12, 2024 by sean

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The @Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index fell in May to 46.4%, reversing the uptick in April. Employees' confidence in their employers' business outlook remains stubbornly weak.

1/ pic.twitter.com/HNPEzvgS3O

Either growth is steady and inflation slows or growth slows and inflation slows. Those are the most plausible outcomes, in our view. This may come as the Fed erases cuts in 2024.

Buckle up. https://t.co/435ZHhCUoF

Small businesses planning to raise prices leads CPI by 6 months.

In the April NFIB survey, a net 26% of owners planned price hikes, the lowest reading in a year.

May survey on Tuesday, the day before CPI & FOMC. pic.twitter.com/pK6E0anN2r

A 7% mortgage rate in 2024 is like a 15% rate in 1982

How

When accounting for U.S. home prices, home insurance, incomes, property taxes, and a 10% down payment, housing affordability in 2024 is similar to 1982 (when rates floated between 13%-17%)

via @johnburnsjbrec @JBREC pic.twitter.com/joLacpOAlc

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