Animal Spirits: Is the AI Trade Over?

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On today’s show, we discuss:

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Tweets/Bluesky

Completely agree.

Sam Altman’s manifestly ridiculous $1 trillion of spending commitments shifted the AI investing landscape.

The market is more skeptical now.

Ironically makes an IPO harder for them.

Also likely ended any potential for a 1999 style melt-up which is healthy. https://t.co/5TEgp3OfmO

— Gavin Baker (@GavinSBaker) November 15, 2025

If you invested at the peak of the Nasdaq in March 2000, it would have been roughly 18 years before you were whole again: 15 years before the index reached the same point, plus another 3 for inflation.

— Paul Graham (@paulg) November 13, 2025

Tech bonds are getting hit hard of late as debt traders start wondering if they're getting left with the bill for the stock market's enthusiasm. Oracle's $3.5 billion of 30-year debt issued in September has cratered by 8% from the October peak. pic.twitter.com/s3Exn7iqfs

— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) November 13, 2025

An interesting trend we're noticing at Stripe: US startups are pulling ahead of their peers elsewhere.

These charts show averaged revenue growth for software startups in each location. US startups typically grow somewhat faster than those elsewhere. However, since mid-2023, US… pic.twitter.com/FWp6yUTUy9

— Patrick Collison (@patrickc) November 3, 2025

Me then, me now.

Oh well.
It worked out. It will work out pic.twitter.com/vaordNav8d

— Cassandra Unchained (@michaeljburry) November 12, 2025

The Trump administration is preparing tariff rollbacks on goods from countries beyond those that have reached trade agreements with the US in effort to lower prices @AnaSwanson @tylerpager me https://t.co/6fML7wxI3E

— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) November 13, 2025

Brad Gerstner: “AI is becoming deeply unpopular in America”

“Silicon Valley is losing the battle around AI.”

“Doomers are now scaring people about jobs. They think all these job cuts that are going on in America are the result of AI.”

“And number two, they're seeing their… pic.twitter.com/aDkC2Vkfsc

— The All-In Podcast (@theallinpod) November 8, 2025

19 stocks have fallen 30%+ on their earnings reaction days this season versus 14 that have gained 30%+.

Here's both lists: pic.twitter.com/KKFg0wo05c

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 14, 2025

Sometimes compounders stop compounding. What lesson do you take away from this? pic.twitter.com/AI8yzQvVqX

— Long Equity (@long_equity) November 15, 2025

Just checked and yeah $IBIT is now Harvard's largest position in its 13F and its biggest position increase in Q3.

It's super rare/difficult to get an endowment to bite on an ETF- esp a Harvard or Yale, it's as good a validation as an ETF can get. That said, half a billion is a… https://t.co/oTiSL29llB pic.twitter.com/yw0tRcD1ad

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) November 15, 2025

This is average, not median age, but the New York Fed finds that first-time homebuyers were *younger* in 2024 than in the 2000s. Haven't gotten older on average in nearly 20 years.

h/t @MosesSternstein pic.twitter.com/6qTzoybCkD

— Connor O’Brien (@cojobrien) November 12, 2025

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