Domestic politics adds to the uncertainty. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released this week found that just one in three Americans support the war, the lowest reading since fighting began. The Senate fell one vote short, 49 to 50, of advancing a resolution against the conflict on Thursday. With midterm elections approaching and gasoline prices remaining a concern for voters, the administration is under pressure to show progress.
That could point toward renewed diplomacy or toward further military action, as Mr. Trump suggested earlier this week. Brokers said clients with Gulf exposure should treat any forthcoming ceasefire announcement with the same caution underwriters are already applying: a development worth monitoring, not yet a basis for repricing risk.
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